**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election shows AfD support stable near 35–36%, placing the party on track for roughly 28–31 seats in the minimum 71-seat parliament (with potential overhang and leveling seats).** This aligns with the market’s leading 28–31 outcome at 52% implied probability. Latest surveys from Infratest dimap (early July) and INSA (mid-June) confirm AfD holding a consistent lead ahead of SPD (28–29%), with Linke around 11–12%, CDU near 9–10%, and smaller parties (Greens, BSW, FDP) clustered near or below the 5% threshold. These figures have changed little over the past several months, producing seat projections that cluster in the upper 20s. SPD gains have narrowed AfD’s margin without shifting the overall distribution enough to move the plurality into adjacent brackets. The 24–27 and 32–35 ranges (25.5% and 19.5%) capture plausible variance from turnout, threshold effects, or minor late movements, while outcomes outside 24–35 remain low-probability given current trends. With the election roughly five weeks away, the seat range continues to track the steady polling trajectory rather than any single decisive event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated28-31 52%
24-27 27%
32-35 25%
36+ 5.8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<20
3%
20-23
4%
24-27
27%
28-31
52%
32-35
20%
36+
6%
28-31 52%
24-27 27%
32-35 25%
36+ 5.8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<20
$91 Vol.
3%
20-23
$449 Vol.
4%
24-27
$61 Vol.
27%
28-31
$2,105 Vol.
52%
32-35
$163 Vol.
20%
36+
$247 Vol.
6%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election shows AfD support stable near 35–36%, placing the party on track for roughly 28–31 seats in the minimum 71-seat parliament (with potential overhang and leveling seats).** This aligns with the market’s leading 28–31 outcome at 52% implied probability.
Latest surveys from Infratest dimap (early July) and INSA (mid-June) confirm AfD holding a consistent lead ahead of SPD (28–29%), with Linke around 11–12%, CDU near 9–10%, and smaller parties (Greens, BSW, FDP) clustered near or below the 5% threshold. These figures have changed little over the past several months, producing seat projections that cluster in the upper 20s. SPD gains have narrowed AfD’s margin without shifting the overall distribution enough to move the plurality into adjacent brackets.
The 24–27 and 32–35 ranges (25.5% and 19.5%) capture plausible variance from turnout, threshold effects, or minor late movements, while outcomes outside 24–35 remain low-probability given current trends. With the election roughly five weeks away, the seat range continues to track the steady polling trajectory rather than any single decisive event.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ET
Volume
$3,117End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election shows AfD support stable near 35–36%, placing the party on track for roughly 28–31 seats in the minimum 71-seat parliament (with potential overhang and leveling seats).** This aligns with the market’s leading 28–31 outcome at 52% implied probability.
Latest surveys from Infratest dimap (early July) and INSA (mid-June) confirm AfD holding a consistent lead ahead of SPD (28–29%), with Linke around 11–12%, CDU near 9–10%, and smaller parties (Greens, BSW, FDP) clustered near or below the 5% threshold. These figures have changed little over the past several months, producing seat projections that cluster in the upper 20s. SPD gains have narrowed AfD’s margin without shifting the overall distribution enough to move the plurality into adjacent brackets.
The 24–27 and 32–35 ranges (25.5% and 19.5%) capture plausible variance from turnout, threshold effects, or minor late movements, while outcomes outside 24–35 remain low-probability given current trends. With the election roughly five weeks away, the seat range continues to track the steady polling trajectory rather than any single decisive event.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$3,117End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election shows AfD support stable near 35–36%, placing the party on track for roughly 28–31 seats in the minimum 71-seat parliament (with potential overhang and leveling seats).** This aligns with the market’s leading 28–31 outcome at 52% implied probability. Latest surveys from Infratest dimap (early July) and INSA (mid-June) confirm AfD holding a consistent lead ahead of SPD (28–29%), with Linke around 11–12%, CDU near 9–10%, and smaller parties (Greens, BSW, FDP) clustered near or below the 5% threshold. These figures have changed little over the past several months, producing seat projections that cluster in the upper 20s. SPD gains have narrowed AfD’s margin without shifting the overall distribution enough to move the plurality into adjacent brackets. The 24–27 and 32–35 ranges (25.5% and 19.5%) capture plausible variance from turnout, threshold effects, or minor late movements, while outcomes outside 24–35 remain low-probability given current trends. With the election roughly five weeks away, the seat range continues to track the steady polling trajectory rather than any single decisive event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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