Skip to main content
icon for Baja California Governor Election Winner
Politics·Mexico

Baja California Governor Election Winner

icon for Baja California Governor Election Winner
Politics·Mexico

Baja California Governor Election Winner

Karla Ruiz Macfarland 32%

Ana Daniela García Salgado 29%

Gustavo Macalpin 28%

Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega 27%

Polymarket
NEW

Karla Ruiz Macfarland 32%

Ana Daniela García Salgado 29%

Gustavo Macalpin 28%

Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega 27%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Karla Ruiz Macfarland

Karla Ruiz Macfarland

$61 Vol.

32%

icon for Ana Daniela García Salgado

Ana Daniela García Salgado

$61 Vol.

29%

icon for Gustavo Macalpin

Gustavo Macalpin

$61 Vol.

28%

icon for Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega

Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega

$61 Vol.

27%

icon for Daylín García Ruvalcaba

Daylín García Ruvalcaba

$61 Vol.

27%

icon for Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros

Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros

$61 Vol.

25%

icon for Víctor Galicia

Víctor Galicia

$61 Vol.

24%

icon for Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe

Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe

$61 Vol.

24%

icon for Gustavo de Hoyos Walther

Gustavo de Hoyos Walther

$61 Vol.

23%

icon for Julieta Ramírez Padilla

Julieta Ramírez Padilla

$61 Vol.

22%

icon for Armando Ayala Robles

Armando Ayala Robles

$61 Vol.

22%

icon for Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas

Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas

$61 Vol.

22%

icon for Jorge Ramos Hernández

Jorge Ramos Hernández

$61 Vol.

22%

icon for Fernando Castro Trenti

Fernando Castro Trenti

$61 Vol.

22%

icon for Montserrat Caballero Ramírez

Montserrat Caballero Ramírez

$61 Vol.

22%

icon for Héctor Osuna Jaime

Héctor Osuna Jaime

$61 Vol.

22%

icon for Juan Carlos Hank

Juan Carlos Hank

$61 Vol.

22%

icon for Gina Cruz Blackledge

Gina Cruz Blackledge

$61 Vol.

21%

icon for Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso

Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso

$61 Vol.

19%

icon for Ismael Burgueño Ruiz

Ismael Burgueño Ruiz

$61 Vol.

23%

icon for Evangelina Moreno Guerra

Evangelina Moreno Guerra

$61 Vol.

22%

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.The Baja California gubernatorial race for the June 2027 election remains fragmented in early trader pricing, with leading contenders clustered between 22% and 32% amid a broad field of more than two dozen aspirants. Morena's internal selection process, involving nine registered figures including Tijuana Mayor Ismael Burgueño Ruiz and others, drives much of the uncertainty as the party seeks to retain the governorship held by term-limited incumbent Marina del Pilar Ávila Olmeda. Public polling shows similar dispersion, reflecting limited name recognition and no decisive frontrunner. Upcoming party conventions, candidate registrations, and early surveys could consolidate support, while cross-party dynamics and voter turnout patterns in border municipalities may further shift implied probabilities before the general ballot.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$1,281
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:28 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.The Baja California gubernatorial race for the June 2027 election remains fragmented in early trader pricing, with leading contenders clustered between 22% and 32% amid a broad field of more than two dozen aspirants. Morena's internal selection process, involving nine registered figures including Tijuana Mayor Ismael Burgueño Ruiz and others, drives much of the uncertainty as the party seeks to retain the governorship held by term-limited incumbent Marina del Pilar Ávila Olmeda. Public polling shows similar dispersion, reflecting limited name recognition and no decisive frontrunner. Upcoming party conventions, candidate registrations, and early surveys could consolidate support, while cross-party dynamics and voter turnout patterns in border municipalities may further shift implied probabilities before the general ballot.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$1,281
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:28 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.

Related

icon for Will José Saúl González Núñez win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?

Will José Saúl González Núñez win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?

41%
icon for Will Ivideliza Reyes Hernández win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?

Will Ivideliza Reyes Hernández win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?

31%
icon for Will Mario Zamora Gastélum win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?

Will Mario Zamora Gastélum win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?

39%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Baja California Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Karla Ruiz Macfarland" at 32%, followed by "Ana Daniela García Salgado" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 32¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Baja California Governor Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 5, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Baja California Governor Election Winner," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Baja California Governor Election Winner" is "Karla Ruiz Macfarland" at 32%, meaning the market assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ana Daniela García Salgado" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Baja California Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.