USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeter data show steady summit inflation following Episode 52’s end on July 29, driving the primary forecast for Episode 53 fountaining between August 8–12. Recent deflationary steps observed on August 2–3 and again on August 7 could extend this window if prolonged, as models adjust for magma accumulation rates in Halemaʻumaʻu. Glow from north and south vents plus the post-eruption inflation-deflation pattern support near-term onset, while low SO₂ emissions and no East Rift Zone activity reinforce the episodic summit cycle. Traders assign the highest implied probability to August 9–10, reflecting the narrow current window tempered by deflation uncertainty and upcoming tilt updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhen will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin?
When will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin?
Aug 11-12 37%
Aug 9-10 35%
Aug 13 or later 21%
Aug 8 or earlier 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
Aug 8 or earlier
5%
Aug 9-10
35%
Aug 11-12
26%
Aug 13 or later
21%
Aug 11-12 37%
Aug 9-10 35%
Aug 13 or later 21%
Aug 8 or earlier 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
Aug 8 or earlier
$231 Vol.
5%
Aug 9-10
$138 Vol.
35%
Aug 11-12
$87 Vol.
26%
Aug 13 or later
$679 Vol.
21%
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeter data show steady summit inflation following Episode 52’s end on July 29, driving the primary forecast for Episode 53 fountaining between August 8–12. Recent deflationary steps observed on August 2–3 and again on August 7 could extend this window if prolonged, as models adjust for magma accumulation rates in Halemaʻumaʻu. Glow from north and south vents plus the post-eruption inflation-deflation pattern support near-term onset, while low SO₂ emissions and no East Rift Zone activity reinforce the episodic summit cycle. Traders assign the highest implied probability to August 9–10, reflecting the narrow current window tempered by deflation uncertainty and upcoming tilt updates.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volume
$1,135End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeter data show steady summit inflation following Episode 52’s end on July 29, driving the primary forecast for Episode 53 fountaining between August 8–12. Recent deflationary steps observed on August 2–3 and again on August 7 could extend this window if prolonged, as models adjust for magma accumulation rates in Halemaʻumaʻu. Glow from north and south vents plus the post-eruption inflation-deflation pattern support near-term onset, while low SO₂ emissions and no East Rift Zone activity reinforce the episodic summit cycle. Traders assign the highest implied probability to August 9–10, reflecting the narrow current window tempered by deflation uncertainty and upcoming tilt updates.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Volume
$1,135End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeter data show steady summit inflation following Episode 52’s end on July 29, driving the primary forecast for Episode 53 fountaining between August 8–12. Recent deflationary steps observed on August 2–3 and again on August 7 could extend this window if prolonged, as models adjust for magma accumulation rates in Halemaʻumaʻu. Glow from north and south vents plus the post-eruption inflation-deflation pattern support near-term onset, while low SO₂ emissions and no East Rift Zone activity reinforce the episodic summit cycle. Traders assign the highest implied probability to August 9–10, reflecting the narrow current window tempered by deflation uncertainty and upcoming tilt updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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