Skip to main content
icon for Minnesota Republican Governor Primary Margin of Victory
Politics·Primaries

Minnesota Republican Governor Primary Margin of Victory

icon for Minnesota Republican Governor Primary Margin of Victory
Politics·Primaries

Minnesota Republican Governor Primary Margin of Victory

Demuth 10%+ 95%

Lindell 5–10% 45%

Lindell 15–20% 43%

Lindell 25%+ 10%

Polymarket

$773 Vol.

Demuth 10%+ 95%

Lindell 5–10% 45%

Lindell 15–20% 43%

Lindell 25%+ 10%

Polymarket

$773 Vol.

icon for Lindell 25%+

Lindell 25%+

$57 Vol.

10%

icon for Lindell 20–25%

Lindell 20–25%

$37 Vol.

9%

icon for Lindell 15–20%

Lindell 15–20%

$37 Vol.

43%

icon for Lindell 10–15%

Lindell 10–15%

$172 Vol.

1%

icon for Lindell 5–10%

Lindell 5–10%

$17 Vol.

45%

icon for Lindell <5%

Lindell <5%

$217 Vol.

4%

icon for Demuth <5%

Demuth <5%

$217 Vol.

4%

icon for Demuth 5–10%

Demuth 5–10%

$0 Vol.

3%

icon for Demuth 10%+

Demuth 10%+

$19 Vol.

95%

Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Republican Gubernatorial Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Lisa Demuth secured a decisive edge in Minnesota's Republican gubernatorial primary on August 11, 2026, leading Mike Lindell by roughly 11 points in results called by multiple outlets, which explains the market's strong pricing on a Demuth margin exceeding 10 percent. As House speaker, Demuth consolidated support from party regulars and voters prioritizing electability against Democrat Amy Klobuchar in November, while Lindell's Trump endorsement failed to overcome weaker primary turnout and organization. Trader consensus in these probabilities reflects the completed vote count and certification timeline. Lingering challenges such as Lindell's refusal to concede or claims of irregularities remain unlikely to alter the final certified margin absent successful legal intervention before resolution.

Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Republican Gubernatorial Primary.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$773
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 4:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Republican Gubernatorial Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Republican Gubernatorial Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Lisa Demuth secured a decisive edge in Minnesota's Republican gubernatorial primary on August 11, 2026, leading Mike Lindell by roughly 11 points in results called by multiple outlets, which explains the market's strong pricing on a Demuth margin exceeding 10 percent. As House speaker, Demuth consolidated support from party regulars and voters prioritizing electability against Democrat Amy Klobuchar in November, while Lindell's Trump endorsement failed to overcome weaker primary turnout and organization. Trader consensus in these probabilities reflects the completed vote count and certification timeline. Lingering challenges such as Lindell's refusal to concede or claims of irregularities remain unlikely to alter the final certified margin absent successful legal intervention before resolution.

Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Republican Gubernatorial Primary.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$773
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 4:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Republican Gubernatorial Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Related

icon for Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?

Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?

52%
icon for Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?

22%
icon for Will Ty Masterson win the Kansas Republican Governor primary by 20–25%?

Will Ty Masterson win the Kansas Republican Governor primary by 20–25%?

49%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Minnesota Republican Governor Primary Margin of Victory" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Demuth 10%+" at 95%, followed by "Lindell 5–10%" at 45%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Minnesota Republican Governor Primary Margin of Victory" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 7, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Minnesota Republican Governor Primary Margin of Victory," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Minnesota Republican Governor Primary Margin of Victory" is "Demuth 10%+" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lindell 5–10%" at 45%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Minnesota Republican Governor Primary Margin of Victory" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.