David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11, 2026 primary by defeating state Representative Francesca Hong by less than one percentage point in a photo-finish outcome. Late undecided voters shifted toward Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive who had earlier suspended his campaign amid low polling and funding challenges before reentering. Hong, positioned as the progressive frontrunner with stronger polling leads through July, saw her support hold but ultimately fall short as the race tightened in final days. The narrow margin aligned with trader consensus reflected in current market pricing, where the sub-1% bracket captured overwhelming probability due to the confirmed results and absence of a recount. A recount remained possible only if the gap fell below 0.25 points, a threshold not met here.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCrowley <1% 99.6%
Hong 1–2% <1%
Crowley 1–2% <1%
Crowley 3–4% <1%
NEW
$100,418 Vol.
NEW
$100,418 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
Hong 6%+
<1%
Hong 5–6%
<1%
Hong 4–5%
<1%
Hong 3–4%
<1%
Hong 2–3%
<1%
Hong 1–2%
<1%
Hong <1%
<1%
Crowley <1%
100%
Crowley 1–2%
<1%
Crowley 2–3%
<1%
Crowley 3–4%
<1%
Crowley 4–5%
<1%
Crowley 5–6%
<1%
Crowley 6%+
<1%
Crowley <1% 99.6%
Hong 1–2% <1%
Crowley 1–2% <1%
Crowley 3–4% <1%
NEW
$100,418 Vol.
NEW
$100,418 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
Hong 6%+
$12,563 Vol.
<1%
Hong 5–6%
$3,714 Vol.
<1%
Hong 4–5%
$3,377 Vol.
<1%
Hong 3–4%
$11,011 Vol.
<1%
Hong 2–3%
$2,738 Vol.
<1%
Hong 1–2%
$8,472 Vol.
<1%
Hong <1%
$4,537 Vol.
<1%
Crowley <1%
$18,836 Vol.
100%
Crowley 1–2%
$10,864 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 2–3%
$9,828 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 3–4%
$4,777 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 4–5%
$2,286 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 5–6%
$3,312 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 6%+
$4,102 Vol.
<1%
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11, 2026 primary by defeating state Representative Francesca Hong by less than one percentage point in a photo-finish outcome. Late undecided voters shifted toward Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive who had earlier suspended his campaign amid low polling and funding challenges before reentering. Hong, positioned as the progressive frontrunner with stronger polling leads through July, saw her support hold but ultimately fall short as the race tightened in final days. The narrow margin aligned with trader consensus reflected in current market pricing, where the sub-1% bracket captured overwhelming probability due to the confirmed results and absence of a recount. A recount remained possible only if the gap fell below 0.25 points, a threshold not met here.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ET
Volume
$100,418End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11, 2026 primary by defeating state Representative Francesca Hong by less than one percentage point in a photo-finish outcome. Late undecided voters shifted toward Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive who had earlier suspended his campaign amid low polling and funding challenges before reentering. Hong, positioned as the progressive frontrunner with stronger polling leads through July, saw her support hold but ultimately fall short as the race tightened in final days. The narrow margin aligned with trader consensus reflected in current market pricing, where the sub-1% bracket captured overwhelming probability due to the confirmed results and absence of a recount. A recount remained possible only if the gap fell below 0.25 points, a threshold not met here.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$100,418End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11, 2026 primary by defeating state Representative Francesca Hong by less than one percentage point in a photo-finish outcome. Late undecided voters shifted toward Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive who had earlier suspended his campaign amid low polling and funding challenges before reentering. Hong, positioned as the progressive frontrunner with stronger polling leads through July, saw her support hold but ultimately fall short as the race tightened in final days. The narrow margin aligned with trader consensus reflected in current market pricing, where the sub-1% bracket captured overwhelming probability due to the confirmed results and absence of a recount. A recount remained possible only if the gap fell below 0.25 points, a threshold not met here.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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