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Economy·NFP

How many jobs added in August?

icon for How many jobs added in August?
Economy·NFP

How many jobs added in August?

Sep 5

Sep 5

0 – 50k 28%

50k – 100k 26%

-50k – 0 22%

100k – 150k 17.2%

Polymarket

$12,347 Vol.

0 – 50k 28%

50k – 100k 26%

-50k – 0 22%

100k – 150k 17.2%

Polymarket

$12,347 Vol.

<-50k

$497 Vol.

5%

-50k – 0

$1,032 Vol.

22%

0 – 50k

$7,922 Vol.

28%

50k – 100k

$2,295 Vol.

26%

100k – 150k

$203 Vol.

17%

150k+

$397 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmTrader sentiment for the August employment report reflects a closely contested labor market, with the three leading buckets (0–50k, 50k–100k, and –50k–0) collectively holding over 74% of implied probability. Recent moderation in jobless claims, private payroll trends from ADP, and wage growth data have kept forecasts range-bound, while the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate continues to link employment figures to monetary policy expectations. Market-implied odds highlight uncertainty around seasonal adjustments and potential revisions to prior months. The upcoming BLS release on the first Friday of September, alongside any interim high-frequency indicators, will serve as the main catalyst capable of shifting the distribution.

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volume
$12,347
End Date
Sep 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmTrader sentiment for the August employment report reflects a closely contested labor market, with the three leading buckets (0–50k, 50k–100k, and –50k–0) collectively holding over 74% of implied probability. Recent moderation in jobless claims, private payroll trends from ADP, and wage growth data have kept forecasts range-bound, while the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate continues to link employment figures to monetary policy expectations. Market-implied odds highlight uncertainty around seasonal adjustments and potential revisions to prior months. The upcoming BLS release on the first Friday of September, alongside any interim high-frequency indicators, will serve as the main catalyst capable of shifting the distribution.

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volume
$12,347
End Date
Sep 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many jobs added in August?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0 – 50k" at 28%, followed by "50k – 100k" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many jobs added in August?" has generated $12.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many jobs added in August?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many jobs added in August?" is "0 – 50k" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "50k – 100k" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many jobs added in August?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.