Recent redistricting by Texas Republicans, enacted in 2025 and upheld by the Supreme Court, targeted several Democratic-held districts including those of Marc Veasey, Vicente Gonzalez, Lloyd Doggett, Julie Johnson, and Al Green, with analysts projecting a net Republican gain of roughly two seats from the current 13 Democratic holdings out of 38 total. Multiple Democratic retirements, including Jasmine Crockett shifting to a Senate bid, add uncertainty to open seats under the new lines. Trader consensus around 9–11 Democratic wins reflects varied assessments of how effectively the map packs or cracks Democratic voters in South Texas, Houston, and Dallas areas, alongside factors like Latino voter trends and national midterm dynamics. Competitive ratings in key districts from sources such as the Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ keep probabilities clustered, while stronger-than-expected turnout or shifts in specific battlegrounds could alter the final count.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10 32%
9 27%
11 24%
8 12%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<8
5%
8
12%
9
27%
10
32%
11
34%
12
8%
13
5%
14+
5%
10 32%
9 27%
11 24%
8 12%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<8
$0 Vol.
5%
8
$0 Vol.
12%
9
$0 Vol.
27%
10
$0 Vol.
32%
11
$20 Vol.
34%
12
$0 Vol.
8%
13
$0 Vol.
5%
14+
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent redistricting by Texas Republicans, enacted in 2025 and upheld by the Supreme Court, targeted several Democratic-held districts including those of Marc Veasey, Vicente Gonzalez, Lloyd Doggett, Julie Johnson, and Al Green, with analysts projecting a net Republican gain of roughly two seats from the current 13 Democratic holdings out of 38 total. Multiple Democratic retirements, including Jasmine Crockett shifting to a Senate bid, add uncertainty to open seats under the new lines. Trader consensus around 9–11 Democratic wins reflects varied assessments of how effectively the map packs or cracks Democratic voters in South Texas, Houston, and Dallas areas, alongside factors like Latino voter trends and national midterm dynamics. Competitive ratings in key districts from sources such as the Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ keep probabilities clustered, while stronger-than-expected turnout or shifts in specific battlegrounds could alter the final count.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent redistricting by Texas Republicans, enacted in 2025 and upheld by the Supreme Court, targeted several Democratic-held districts including those of Marc Veasey, Vicente Gonzalez, Lloyd Doggett, Julie Johnson, and Al Green, with analysts projecting a net Republican gain of roughly two seats from the current 13 Democratic holdings out of 38 total. Multiple Democratic retirements, including Jasmine Crockett shifting to a Senate bid, add uncertainty to open seats under the new lines. Trader consensus around 9–11 Democratic wins reflects varied assessments of how effectively the map packs or cracks Democratic voters in South Texas, Houston, and Dallas areas, alongside factors like Latino voter trends and national midterm dynamics. Competitive ratings in key districts from sources such as the Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ keep probabilities clustered, while stronger-than-expected turnout or shifts in specific battlegrounds could alter the final count.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$20End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent redistricting by Texas Republicans, enacted in 2025 and upheld by the Supreme Court, targeted several Democratic-held districts including those of Marc Veasey, Vicente Gonzalez, Lloyd Doggett, Julie Johnson, and Al Green, with analysts projecting a net Republican gain of roughly two seats from the current 13 Democratic holdings out of 38 total. Multiple Democratic retirements, including Jasmine Crockett shifting to a Senate bid, add uncertainty to open seats under the new lines. Trader consensus around 9–11 Democratic wins reflects varied assessments of how effectively the map packs or cracks Democratic voters in South Texas, Houston, and Dallas areas, alongside factors like Latino voter trends and national midterm dynamics. Competitive ratings in key districts from sources such as the Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ keep probabilities clustered, while stronger-than-expected turnout or shifts in specific battlegrounds could alter the final count.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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