The steep procedural barriers to amending the Constitution explain traders' 97.7% consensus against repeal in 2026. Any change to the 22nd Amendment requires two-thirds approval in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification in 38 states—a threshold unmet even during periods of unified party control and historically achieved only once to repeal a prior amendment. A related House joint resolution introduced in January 2025 to modify term limits for nonconsecutive service advanced no further, and President Trump's public comments have remained inconsistent without sustained legislative follow-through. Midterm elections later in 2026 could alter congressional composition, yet state-level ratification dynamics and entrenched bipartisan attachment to the two-term precedent create additional structural obstacles. Late-session maneuvers or unforeseen political realignments remain theoretically possible but would still confront the same supermajority requirements within the calendar year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$11,880 Vol.
$11,880 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$11,880 Vol.
$11,880 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The steep procedural barriers to amending the Constitution explain traders' 97.7% consensus against repeal in 2026. Any change to the 22nd Amendment requires two-thirds approval in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification in 38 states—a threshold unmet even during periods of unified party control and historically achieved only once to repeal a prior amendment. A related House joint resolution introduced in January 2025 to modify term limits for nonconsecutive service advanced no further, and President Trump's public comments have remained inconsistent without sustained legislative follow-through. Midterm elections later in 2026 could alter congressional composition, yet state-level ratification dynamics and entrenched bipartisan attachment to the two-term precedent create additional structural obstacles. Late-session maneuvers or unforeseen political realignments remain theoretically possible but would still confront the same supermajority requirements within the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$11,880End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The steep procedural barriers to amending the Constitution explain traders' 97.7% consensus against repeal in 2026. Any change to the 22nd Amendment requires two-thirds approval in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification in 38 states—a threshold unmet even during periods of unified party control and historically achieved only once to repeal a prior amendment. A related House joint resolution introduced in January 2025 to modify term limits for nonconsecutive service advanced no further, and President Trump's public comments have remained inconsistent without sustained legislative follow-through. Midterm elections later in 2026 could alter congressional composition, yet state-level ratification dynamics and entrenched bipartisan attachment to the two-term precedent create additional structural obstacles. Late-session maneuvers or unforeseen political realignments remain theoretically possible but would still confront the same supermajority requirements within the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Volume
$11,880End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The steep procedural barriers to amending the Constitution explain traders' 97.7% consensus against repeal in 2026. Any change to the 22nd Amendment requires two-thirds approval in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification in 38 states—a threshold unmet even during periods of unified party control and historically achieved only once to repeal a prior amendment. A related House joint resolution introduced in January 2025 to modify term limits for nonconsecutive service advanced no further, and President Trump's public comments have remained inconsistent without sustained legislative follow-through. Midterm elections later in 2026 could alter congressional composition, yet state-level ratification dynamics and entrenched bipartisan attachment to the two-term precedent create additional structural obstacles. Late-session maneuvers or unforeseen political realignments remain theoretically possible but would still confront the same supermajority requirements within the calendar year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions