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Politics·UK

Next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?

icon for Next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?
Politics·UK

Next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?

Alfred Cannan 49%

Jane Poole-Wilson 40%

Alex Allinson 38%

Chris Thomas 38%

Polymarket
NEW

Alfred Cannan 49%

Jane Poole-Wilson 40%

Alex Allinson 38%

Chris Thomas 38%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Alfred Cannan

Alfred Cannan

$30 Vol.

49%

icon for Jane Poole-Wilson

Jane Poole-Wilson

$0 Vol.

40%

icon for Alex Allinson

Alex Allinson

$0 Vol.

38%

icon for Chris Thomas

Chris Thomas

$0 Vol.

38%

icon for Rob Callister

Rob Callister

$0 Vol.

38%

icon for Lawrie Hooper

Lawrie Hooper

$0 Vol.

38%

Parliamentary elections to elect the House of Keys of the Isle of Man are scheduled to take place on September 24, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chief Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Isle of Man; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The upcoming Isle of Man general election on 24 September 2026 will determine the composition of the House of Keys, which then selects the next Chief Minister through internal nomination and vote among MHKs. Current Chief Minister Alfred Cannan has confirmed he will contest a seat and seek another term, yet the absence of firm polling or confirmed candidate slates across constituencies leaves multiple potential successors—including sitting ministers and MHKs such as Jane Poole-Wilson, Alex Allinson, Chris Thomas, and others—at comparable implied probabilities. This even distribution reflects the open field typical before nominations close and results clarify coalition-building dynamics, with separation likely to emerge only after election outcomes narrow viable contenders or shift party and independent alignments in Tynwald.

Parliamentary elections to elect the House of Keys of the Isle of Man are scheduled to take place on September 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chief Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Isle of Man; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$30
End Date
Sep 24, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 6:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the House of Keys of the Isle of Man are scheduled to take place on September 24, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chief Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Isle of Man; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Parliamentary elections to elect the House of Keys of the Isle of Man are scheduled to take place on September 24, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chief Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Isle of Man; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The upcoming Isle of Man general election on 24 September 2026 will determine the composition of the House of Keys, which then selects the next Chief Minister through internal nomination and vote among MHKs. Current Chief Minister Alfred Cannan has confirmed he will contest a seat and seek another term, yet the absence of firm polling or confirmed candidate slates across constituencies leaves multiple potential successors—including sitting ministers and MHKs such as Jane Poole-Wilson, Alex Allinson, Chris Thomas, and others—at comparable implied probabilities. This even distribution reflects the open field typical before nominations close and results clarify coalition-building dynamics, with separation likely to emerge only after election outcomes narrow viable contenders or shift party and independent alignments in Tynwald.

Parliamentary elections to elect the House of Keys of the Isle of Man are scheduled to take place on September 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chief Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Isle of Man; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$30
End Date
Sep 24, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 6:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the House of Keys of the Isle of Man are scheduled to take place on September 24, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chief Minister of the Isle of Man following the 2026 Isle of Man parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chief Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Isle of Man; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Alfred Cannan" at 49%, followed by "Jane Poole-Wilson" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?" is "Alfred Cannan" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jane Poole-Wilson" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.