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icon for Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

icon for Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

Matt Damon 28%

Tom Cruise 26%

Andrew Scott 11%

John Malkovich 11%

Polymarket
NEW

Matt Damon 28%

Tom Cruise 26%

Andrew Scott 11%

John Malkovich 11%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Matt Damon

Matt Damon

$2,070 Vol.

28%

icon for Tom Cruise

Tom Cruise

$1,868 Vol.

26%

icon for Andrew Scott

Andrew Scott

$88 Vol.

11%

icon for John Malkovich

John Malkovich

$104 Vol.

11%

icon for Ryan Gosling

Ryan Gosling

$1,128 Vol.

9%

icon for Timothée Chalamet

Timothée Chalamet

$31 Vol.

8%

icon for Jeremy Strong

Jeremy Strong

$88 Vol.

7%

icon for Sebastian Stan

Sebastian Stan

$88 Vol.

4%

icon for John Turturro

John Turturro

$88 Vol.

4%

icon for Pedro Pascal

Pedro Pascal

$88 Vol.

4%

icon for Robert Aramayo

Robert Aramayo

$79 Vol.

3%

icon for Josh O'Connor

Josh O'Connor

$54 Vol.

3%

icon for Adam Driver

Adam Driver

$54 Vol.

2%

icon for Javier Bardem

Javier Bardem

$54 Vol.

1%

icon for Brad Pitt

Brad Pitt

$54 Vol.

1%

icon for Sam Rockwell

Sam Rockwell

$54 Vol.

1%

icon for Jaafar Jackson

Jaafar Jackson

$54 Vol.

1%

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With the 2027 Oscars cycle still in its early stages, trader sentiment for Best Actor shows a crowded field of contenders priced at similar levels, reflecting limited 2026 release data and no clear frontrunner yet. Established stars such as Matt Damon hold the highest implied probability due to career momentum and anticipated projects, while names like Tom Cruise, Ryan Gosling, and Timothée Chalamet trade lower amid broader competition from festival hopefuls and studio campaigns. Differentiating factors will hinge on upcoming critical reception, guild nominations from SAG-AFTRA and others, and box-office performance once fall releases hit. Historical patterns suggest late-year breakthroughs can rapidly shift consensus before voting begins.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor.

If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,045
End Date
Mar 14, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 11:05 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With the 2027 Oscars cycle still in its early stages, trader sentiment for Best Actor shows a crowded field of contenders priced at similar levels, reflecting limited 2026 release data and no clear frontrunner yet. Established stars such as Matt Damon hold the highest implied probability due to career momentum and anticipated projects, while names like Tom Cruise, Ryan Gosling, and Timothée Chalamet trade lower amid broader competition from festival hopefuls and studio campaigns. Differentiating factors will hinge on upcoming critical reception, guild nominations from SAG-AFTRA and others, and box-office performance once fall releases hit. Historical patterns suggest late-year breakthroughs can rapidly shift consensus before voting begins.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor.

If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,045
End Date
Mar 14, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 11:05 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Matt Damon" at 28%, followed by "Tom Cruise" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner" is "Matt Damon" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tom Cruise" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.