Microsoft’s recent fiscal Q4 earnings beat, with $90 billion in revenue and 18% growth fueled by Azure and AI momentum, propelled shares to close July 31 at $464.72. This catalyst underpins the tightly clustered Polymarket probabilities across ranges from below $420 to above $510, as traders weigh sustained cloud demand and margin dynamics against elevated AI capex and broader tech-sector volatility. With no major company-specific events scheduled before the Aug 7 close and the ex-dividend date set for Aug 20, near-term price action hinges on macroeconomic data releases and sector sentiment. The even distribution of implied odds reflects market-implied uncertainty around short-term momentum following the post-earnings rally.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$430-$440 49%
$450-$460 49%
$470-$480 49%
$480-$490 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 7, 2026
<$420
46%
$420-$430
45%
$430-$440
49%
$440-$450
48%
$450-$460
49%
$460-$470
48%
$470-$480
49%
$480-$490
48%
$490-$500
45%
$500-$510
46%
>$510
46%
$430-$440 49%
$450-$460 49%
$470-$480 49%
$480-$490 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 7, 2026
<$420
$0 Vol.
46%
$420-$430
$0 Vol.
45%
$430-$440
$0 Vol.
49%
$440-$450
$0 Vol.
48%
$450-$460
$0 Vol.
49%
$460-$470
$0 Vol.
48%
$470-$480
$0 Vol.
49%
$480-$490
$0 Vol.
48%
$490-$500
$0 Vol.
45%
$500-$510
$0 Vol.
46%
>$510
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.Microsoft’s recent fiscal Q4 earnings beat, with $90 billion in revenue and 18% growth fueled by Azure and AI momentum, propelled shares to close July 31 at $464.72. This catalyst underpins the tightly clustered Polymarket probabilities across ranges from below $420 to above $510, as traders weigh sustained cloud demand and margin dynamics against elevated AI capex and broader tech-sector volatility. With no major company-specific events scheduled before the Aug 7 close and the ex-dividend date set for Aug 20, near-term price action hinges on macroeconomic data releases and sector sentiment. The even distribution of implied odds reflects market-implied uncertainty around short-term momentum following the post-earnings rally.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.Microsoft’s recent fiscal Q4 earnings beat, with $90 billion in revenue and 18% growth fueled by Azure and AI momentum, propelled shares to close July 31 at $464.72. This catalyst underpins the tightly clustered Polymarket probabilities across ranges from below $420 to above $510, as traders weigh sustained cloud demand and margin dynamics against elevated AI capex and broader tech-sector volatility. With no major company-specific events scheduled before the Aug 7 close and the ex-dividend date set for Aug 20, near-term price action hinges on macroeconomic data releases and sector sentiment. The even distribution of implied odds reflects market-implied uncertainty around short-term momentum following the post-earnings rally.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Microsoft’s recent fiscal Q4 earnings beat, with $90 billion in revenue and 18% growth fueled by Azure and AI momentum, propelled shares to close July 31 at $464.72. This catalyst underpins the tightly clustered Polymarket probabilities across ranges from below $420 to above $510, as traders weigh sustained cloud demand and margin dynamics against elevated AI capex and broader tech-sector volatility. With no major company-specific events scheduled before the Aug 7 close and the ex-dividend date set for Aug 20, near-term price action hinges on macroeconomic data releases and sector sentiment. The even distribution of implied odds reflects market-implied uncertainty around short-term momentum following the post-earnings rally.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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