Lyntris's IPO filing on August 10, 2026, with 24 million shares priced at $19–$22 and a targeted valuation near $2.53 billion, anchors trader expectations for the company's closing market cap following its planned NYSE debut on August 19. Strong defense-sector demand, driven by Trive Capital backing and "sense-to-act" connectivity solutions for military applications, supports the leading 47% implied probability for a $3.5–4 billion outcome, reflecting potential first-day premium over the IPO range amid robust investor appetite for defense listings. Secondary outcomes below $2 billion (20%) or $2–3 billion (roughly 28% combined) price in risks from execution on the 4.9 million primary shares and broader market volatility, while the 17% chance of no IPO before October captures any delays in regulatory or book-building processes. Upcoming trading volume and analyst revisions will likely refine these market-implied odds in the near term.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$3.5B-$4B 47%
$4B+ 19%
$3B-$3.5B 18%
<$2B 18%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
<$2B
18%
$2B-$2.5B
16%
$2.5B-$3B
10%
$3B-$3.5B
18%
$3.5B-$4B
47%
$4B+
19%
No IPO before October 2026
17%
$3.5B-$4B 47%
$4B+ 19%
$3B-$3.5B 18%
<$2B 18%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
<$2B
$0 Vol.
18%
$2B-$2.5B
$0 Vol.
16%
$2.5B-$3B
$20 Vol.
10%
$3B-$3.5B
$0 Vol.
18%
$3.5B-$4B
$7 Vol.
47%
$4B+
$27 Vol.
19%
No IPO before October 2026
$7 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve based on Lyntris' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on August 19 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before October 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Lyntris's IPO filing on August 10, 2026, with 24 million shares priced at $19–$22 and a targeted valuation near $2.53 billion, anchors trader expectations for the company's closing market cap following its planned NYSE debut on August 19. Strong defense-sector demand, driven by Trive Capital backing and "sense-to-act" connectivity solutions for military applications, supports the leading 47% implied probability for a $3.5–4 billion outcome, reflecting potential first-day premium over the IPO range amid robust investor appetite for defense listings. Secondary outcomes below $2 billion (20%) or $2–3 billion (roughly 28% combined) price in risks from execution on the 4.9 million primary shares and broader market volatility, while the 17% chance of no IPO before October captures any delays in regulatory or book-building processes. Upcoming trading volume and analyst revisions will likely refine these market-implied odds in the near term.
This market will resolve based on Lyntris' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on August 19 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before October 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on August 19 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before October 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 9:08 AM ET
Volume
$61End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 9:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Lyntris' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on August 19 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before October 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Lyntris's IPO filing on August 10, 2026, with 24 million shares priced at $19–$22 and a targeted valuation near $2.53 billion, anchors trader expectations for the company's closing market cap following its planned NYSE debut on August 19. Strong defense-sector demand, driven by Trive Capital backing and "sense-to-act" connectivity solutions for military applications, supports the leading 47% implied probability for a $3.5–4 billion outcome, reflecting potential first-day premium over the IPO range amid robust investor appetite for defense listings. Secondary outcomes below $2 billion (20%) or $2–3 billion (roughly 28% combined) price in risks from execution on the 4.9 million primary shares and broader market volatility, while the 17% chance of no IPO before October captures any delays in regulatory or book-building processes. Upcoming trading volume and analyst revisions will likely refine these market-implied odds in the near term.
This market will resolve based on Lyntris' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on August 19 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before October 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on August 19 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before October 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$61End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 9:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lyntris's IPO filing on August 10, 2026, with 24 million shares priced at $19–$22 and a targeted valuation near $2.53 billion, anchors trader expectations for the company's closing market cap following its planned NYSE debut on August 19. Strong defense-sector demand, driven by Trive Capital backing and "sense-to-act" connectivity solutions for military applications, supports the leading 47% implied probability for a $3.5–4 billion outcome, reflecting potential first-day premium over the IPO range amid robust investor appetite for defense listings. Secondary outcomes below $2 billion (20%) or $2–3 billion (roughly 28% combined) price in risks from execution on the 4.9 million primary shares and broader market volatility, while the 17% chance of no IPO before October captures any delays in regulatory or book-building processes. Upcoming trading volume and analyst revisions will likely refine these market-implied odds in the near term.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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