Elon Musk’s late-July timeline on X, targeting Grok 4.6 for roughly August 7 after Grok 4.5’s July 16 launch, remains the dominant catalyst shaping trader views. xAI is reusing its 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 base while focusing gains on supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning for stronger reasoning, coding, and agentic performance without major scale increases. This fits the lab’s compressed two-to-three-week update cycle, which traders contrast with slower peers. Official xAI documentation and API listings still list only Grok 4.5 as of early August, leaving room for last-minute slips or phased rollouts. Grok 4.7, expected weeks later at roughly 2.1 trillion parameters, could further influence near-term sentiment if 4.6 underdelivers on benchmarks or availability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$48,984 Vol.
Aug 7, 2026
August 7
1%
August 14
74%
$48,984 Vol.
August 7
$28,825 Vol.
1%
August 14
$20,864 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s late-July timeline on X, targeting Grok 4.6 for roughly August 7 after Grok 4.5’s July 16 launch, remains the dominant catalyst shaping trader views. xAI is reusing its 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 base while focusing gains on supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning for stronger reasoning, coding, and agentic performance without major scale increases. This fits the lab’s compressed two-to-three-week update cycle, which traders contrast with slower peers. Official xAI documentation and API listings still list only Grok 4.5 as of early August, leaving room for last-minute slips or phased rollouts. Grok 4.7, expected weeks later at roughly 2.1 trillion parameters, could further influence near-term sentiment if 4.6 underdelivers on benchmarks or availability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$48,984End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s late-July timeline on X, targeting Grok 4.6 for roughly August 7 after Grok 4.5’s July 16 launch, remains the dominant catalyst shaping trader views. xAI is reusing its 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 base while focusing gains on supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning for stronger reasoning, coding, and agentic performance without major scale increases. This fits the lab’s compressed two-to-three-week update cycle, which traders contrast with slower peers. Official xAI documentation and API listings still list only Grok 4.5 as of early August, leaving room for last-minute slips or phased rollouts. Grok 4.7, expected weeks later at roughly 2.1 trillion parameters, could further influence near-term sentiment if 4.6 underdelivers on benchmarks or availability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$48,984End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk’s late-July timeline on X, targeting Grok 4.6 for roughly August 7 after Grok 4.5’s July 16 launch, remains the dominant catalyst shaping trader views. xAI is reusing its 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 base while focusing gains on supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning for stronger reasoning, coding, and agentic performance without major scale increases. This fits the lab’s compressed two-to-three-week update cycle, which traders contrast with slower peers. Official xAI documentation and API listings still list only Grok 4.5 as of early August, leaving room for last-minute slips or phased rollouts. Grok 4.7, expected weeks later at roughly 2.1 trillion parameters, could further influence near-term sentiment if 4.6 underdelivers on benchmarks or availability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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