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icon for Cook Islands Parliamentary Election: Ngatangiia Winner
Politics·New Zealand

Cook Islands Parliamentary Election: Ngatangiia Winner

icon for Cook Islands Parliamentary Election: Ngatangiia Winner
Politics·New Zealand

Cook Islands Parliamentary Election: Ngatangiia Winner

Tukaka George Tamarua Ama 86.4%

Mapi Ioteva 13.5%

Christopher Robert Denny 4.8%

Itinga Maoate 2.0%

Polymarket

$17,550 Vol.

Tukaka George Tamarua Ama 86.4%

Mapi Ioteva 13.5%

Christopher Robert Denny 4.8%

Itinga Maoate 2.0%

Polymarket

$17,550 Vol.

Tukaka George Tamarua Ama

$17,017 Vol.

86%

Mapi Ioteva

$322 Vol.

14%

Christopher Robert Denny

$110 Vol.

5%

Itinga Maoate

$100 Vol.

2%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the constituency of Ngatangiia in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections. If the election results are not known definitively by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the specified election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Cook Islands government.The Ngatangiia constituency race features four confirmed candidates—Tukaka George Tamarua Ama of the Cook Islands Party (current MP and associate minister), Christopher Robert Denny of the Progressive Party, Mapi Ioteva of the Cook Islands United Party, and Itinga Maoate of the Democratic Party—creating a fragmented field under first-past-the-post rules ahead of the 12 August 2026 general election. Nominations closed in mid-July with no unopposed outcome, unlike the Ivirua seat, and limited public polling or constituency-specific surveys leave voter preferences unclear. Local factors such as infrastructure priorities (including seawall projects) and party mobilization efforts may influence outcomes, but the absence of decisive recent catalysts—beyond the broader dissolution of parliament in June and ongoing electoral roll inspections—keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered. Developments that could shift sentiment include candidate debates, endorsements from community leaders, or turnout patterns among Rarotonga voters in the final weeks.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the constituency of Ngatangiia in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections.

If the election results are not known definitively by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the specified election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Cook Islands government.
Volume
$17,550
End Date
Aug 12, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 9:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the constituency of Ngatangiia in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections. If the election results are not known definitively by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the specified election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Cook Islands government.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the constituency of Ngatangiia in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections. If the election results are not known definitively by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the specified election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Cook Islands government.The Ngatangiia constituency race features four confirmed candidates—Tukaka George Tamarua Ama of the Cook Islands Party (current MP and associate minister), Christopher Robert Denny of the Progressive Party, Mapi Ioteva of the Cook Islands United Party, and Itinga Maoate of the Democratic Party—creating a fragmented field under first-past-the-post rules ahead of the 12 August 2026 general election. Nominations closed in mid-July with no unopposed outcome, unlike the Ivirua seat, and limited public polling or constituency-specific surveys leave voter preferences unclear. Local factors such as infrastructure priorities (including seawall projects) and party mobilization efforts may influence outcomes, but the absence of decisive recent catalysts—beyond the broader dissolution of parliament in June and ongoing electoral roll inspections—keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered. Developments that could shift sentiment include candidate debates, endorsements from community leaders, or turnout patterns among Rarotonga voters in the final weeks.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the constituency of Ngatangiia in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections.

If the election results are not known definitively by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the specified election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Cook Islands government.
Volume
$17,550
End Date
Aug 12, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 9:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the constituency of Ngatangiia in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections. If the election results are not known definitively by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the specified election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Cook Islands government.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Cook Islands Parliamentary Election: Ngatangiia Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tukaka George Tamarua Ama" at 86%, followed by "Mapi Ioteva" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Cook Islands Parliamentary Election: Ngatangiia Winner" has generated $17.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Cook Islands Parliamentary Election: Ngatangiia Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Cook Islands Parliamentary Election: Ngatangiia Winner" is "Tukaka George Tamarua Ama" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mapi Ioteva" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Cook Islands Parliamentary Election: Ngatangiia Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.