**Bank of Mexico (Banxico) officials have held the benchmark overnight rate steady at 6.50% since the May 2026 cut, with the August decision and forward guidance reinforcing expectations of a prolonged pause.** Headline inflation has continued its downward path, easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July from 3.37% in June—the lowest reading since late 2020—while core inflation has moderated more gradually to around 3.95%. This disinflation trajectory, combined with a Q2 economic rebound after the prior quarter’s contraction, has reduced immediate pressure for further easing. At the same time, the balance of risks remains tilted to the upside, reflecting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, potential trade-policy disruptions, and the possibility of peso weakness. Banxico’s own projections show headline inflation converging to the 3% target only in the fourth quarter of 2027, and recent analyst surveys show near-unanimous forecasts for an unchanged rate through year-end 2026 and into 2027. These fundamentals underpin the 83% market-implied probability of no change at the November meeting, while the low odds attached to 25 bp moves in either direction reflect limited scope for surprises absent a sharp deterioration in inflation or growth data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 83%
25 bps increase 7.1%
25 bps decrease 3.8%
50+ bps decrease 3.1%
NEW
NEW
Nov 5, 2026
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
83%
25 bps increase
7%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 83%
25 bps increase 7.1%
25 bps decrease 3.8%
50+ bps decrease 3.1%
NEW
NEW
Nov 5, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$272 Vol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$319 Vol.
4%
No change
$5,536 Vol.
83%
25 bps increase
$373 Vol.
7%
50+ bps increase
$251 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Bank of Mexico (Banxico) officials have held the benchmark overnight rate steady at 6.50% since the May 2026 cut, with the August decision and forward guidance reinforcing expectations of a prolonged pause.** Headline inflation has continued its downward path, easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July from 3.37% in June—the lowest reading since late 2020—while core inflation has moderated more gradually to around 3.95%. This disinflation trajectory, combined with a Q2 economic rebound after the prior quarter’s contraction, has reduced immediate pressure for further easing.
At the same time, the balance of risks remains tilted to the upside, reflecting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, potential trade-policy disruptions, and the possibility of peso weakness. Banxico’s own projections show headline inflation converging to the 3% target only in the fourth quarter of 2027, and recent analyst surveys show near-unanimous forecasts for an unchanged rate through year-end 2026 and into 2027. These fundamentals underpin the 83% market-implied probability of no change at the November meeting, while the low odds attached to 25 bp moves in either direction reflect limited scope for surprises absent a sharp deterioration in inflation or growth data.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$6,751End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Bank of Mexico (Banxico) officials have held the benchmark overnight rate steady at 6.50% since the May 2026 cut, with the August decision and forward guidance reinforcing expectations of a prolonged pause.** Headline inflation has continued its downward path, easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July from 3.37% in June—the lowest reading since late 2020—while core inflation has moderated more gradually to around 3.95%. This disinflation trajectory, combined with a Q2 economic rebound after the prior quarter’s contraction, has reduced immediate pressure for further easing.
At the same time, the balance of risks remains tilted to the upside, reflecting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, potential trade-policy disruptions, and the possibility of peso weakness. Banxico’s own projections show headline inflation converging to the 3% target only in the fourth quarter of 2027, and recent analyst surveys show near-unanimous forecasts for an unchanged rate through year-end 2026 and into 2027. These fundamentals underpin the 83% market-implied probability of no change at the November meeting, while the low odds attached to 25 bp moves in either direction reflect limited scope for surprises absent a sharp deterioration in inflation or growth data.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$6,751End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Bank of Mexico (Banxico) officials have held the benchmark overnight rate steady at 6.50% since the May 2026 cut, with the August decision and forward guidance reinforcing expectations of a prolonged pause.** Headline inflation has continued its downward path, easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July from 3.37% in June—the lowest reading since late 2020—while core inflation has moderated more gradually to around 3.95%. This disinflation trajectory, combined with a Q2 economic rebound after the prior quarter’s contraction, has reduced immediate pressure for further easing. At the same time, the balance of risks remains tilted to the upside, reflecting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, potential trade-policy disruptions, and the possibility of peso weakness. Banxico’s own projections show headline inflation converging to the 3% target only in the fourth quarter of 2027, and recent analyst surveys show near-unanimous forecasts for an unchanged rate through year-end 2026 and into 2027. These fundamentals underpin the 83% market-implied probability of no change at the November meeting, while the low odds attached to 25 bp moves in either direction reflect limited scope for surprises absent a sharp deterioration in inflation or growth data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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