Amazon’s market cap, currently near $2.94 trillion following its post-Q2 2026 earnings surge, reflects robust AWS momentum—37% revenue growth to a $169 billion annualized run rate—alongside 20% overall sales gains and operating income up 43%. Traders price the leading $2.50–3.00 trillion and $3.00–3.50 trillion buckets at 23.5% and 19% respectively amid elevated $220 billion capex guidance for AI infrastructure, which pressures near-term free cash flow while supporting longer-term positioning against Azure competition. Recent Anthropic investment gains and advertising expansion add upside optionality, yet the dispersed probabilities underscore sensitivity to margin trends, macroeconomic conditions, and execution on AI monetization through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2.50-$3.00T 24%
$3.00-$3.50T 20%
$2.00-$2.50T 11%
$3.50-$4.00T 9%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$2.00T
6%
$2.00-$2.50T
11%
$2.50-$3.00T
24%
$3.00-$3.50T
20%
$3.50-$4.00T
9%
$4.00-$4.50T
4%
$4.50T+
6%
$2.50-$3.00T 24%
$3.00-$3.50T 20%
$2.00-$2.50T 11%
$3.50-$4.00T 9%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$2.00T
$141 Vol.
6%
$2.00-$2.50T
$125 Vol.
11%
$2.50-$3.00T
$455 Vol.
24%
$3.00-$3.50T
$121 Vol.
20%
$3.50-$4.00T
$146 Vol.
9%
$4.00-$4.50T
$125 Vol.
4%
$4.50T+
$130 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Amazon’s market cap, currently near $2.94 trillion following its post-Q2 2026 earnings surge, reflects robust AWS momentum—37% revenue growth to a $169 billion annualized run rate—alongside 20% overall sales gains and operating income up 43%. Traders price the leading $2.50–3.00 trillion and $3.00–3.50 trillion buckets at 23.5% and 19% respectively amid elevated $220 billion capex guidance for AI infrastructure, which pressures near-term free cash flow while supporting longer-term positioning against Azure competition. Recent Anthropic investment gains and advertising expansion add upside optionality, yet the dispersed probabilities underscore sensitivity to margin trends, macroeconomic conditions, and execution on AI monetization through year-end.
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ET
Volume
$1,242End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Amazon’s market cap, currently near $2.94 trillion following its post-Q2 2026 earnings surge, reflects robust AWS momentum—37% revenue growth to a $169 billion annualized run rate—alongside 20% overall sales gains and operating income up 43%. Traders price the leading $2.50–3.00 trillion and $3.00–3.50 trillion buckets at 23.5% and 19% respectively amid elevated $220 billion capex guidance for AI infrastructure, which pressures near-term free cash flow while supporting longer-term positioning against Azure competition. Recent Anthropic investment gains and advertising expansion add upside optionality, yet the dispersed probabilities underscore sensitivity to margin trends, macroeconomic conditions, and execution on AI monetization through year-end.
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$1,242End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amazon’s market cap, currently near $2.94 trillion following its post-Q2 2026 earnings surge, reflects robust AWS momentum—37% revenue growth to a $169 billion annualized run rate—alongside 20% overall sales gains and operating income up 43%. Traders price the leading $2.50–3.00 trillion and $3.00–3.50 trillion buckets at 23.5% and 19% respectively amid elevated $220 billion capex guidance for AI infrastructure, which pressures near-term free cash flow while supporting longer-term positioning against Azure competition. Recent Anthropic investment gains and advertising expansion add upside optionality, yet the dispersed probabilities underscore sensitivity to margin trends, macroeconomic conditions, and execution on AI monetization through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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