The closely bunched trader consensus around 50% for numerous contenders in the FedEx St. Jude Championship first-round leader market reflects the high variability inherent in opening-round PGA Tour scoring at TPC Southwind. With the FedExCup Playoffs field set after the Wyndham Championship and top players including Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Åberg, Collin Morikawa, and Xander Schauffele all in the mix, no single golfer holds a decisive edge. Course setup details such as pin placements, rough height, and early-week weather conditions create parity, while recent form from the regular season and playoffs shows comparable ball-striking and putting metrics across the deep roster. This setup produces tight implied probabilities as the wisdom of crowds accounts for the broad range of realistic outcomes on day one.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSteven Fisk 99%
Russell Henley 99%
Xander Schauffele 99%
Sepp Straka 99%
Steven Fisk
99%
Russell Henley
99%
Xander Schauffele
99%
Sepp Straka
99%
Si Woo Kim
99%
Alex Smalley
99%
Akshay Bhatia
99%
Bud Cauley
99%
Kurt Kitayama
99%
Maverick McNealy
99%
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
51%
JT Poston
51%
Pierceson Coody
50%
Nicolas Echavarria
50%
Rickie Fowler
50%
Ryan Fox
50%
Max Homa
50%
Chris Gotterup
50%
Ben Griffin
50%
Brian Harman
50%
Sung-Jae Im
50%
Tom Kim
50%
Jackson Koivun
50%
Min Woo Lee
50%
Shane Lowry
50%
Hideki Matsuyama
50%
Rory McIlroy
50%
Justin Rose
50%
Matthias Schmid
50%
Adam Scott
50%
Jordan L. Smith
50%
J.J. Spaun
50%
Jordan Spieth
50%
Sam Stevens
50%
Sahith Theegala
50%
Gary Woodland
50%
Cameron Young
50%
Ludvig Aberg
50%
Jacob Bridgeman
50%
Sam Burns
50%
Patrick Cantlay
50%
Ricky Castillo
50%
Wyndham Clark
50%
Eric Cole
50%
Corey Conners
50%
Harris English
50%
Alex Fitzpatrick
50%
Tommy Fleetwood
50%
Ryan Gerard
50%
Ryo Hisatsune
50%
Nicolai Hojgaard
50%
Robert MacIntyre
50%
Collin Morikawa
50%
Alexander Noren
50%
Aaron Rai
50%
Scottie Scheffler
50%
Nick Taylor
50%
Justin Thomas
50%
Michael Thorbjornsen
50%
Jake Knapp
50%
Matt McCarty
50%
Keith Mitchell
50%
Matt Fitzpatrick
50%
Harry Hall
50%
Aldrich Potgieter
50%
Kristoffer Reitan
50%
Patrick Rodgers
50%
Viktor Hovland
50%
Michael Kim
50%
Steven Fisk 99%
Russell Henley 99%
Xander Schauffele 99%
Sepp Straka 99%
Steven Fisk
99%
Russell Henley
99%
Xander Schauffele
99%
Sepp Straka
99%
Si Woo Kim
99%
Alex Smalley
99%
Akshay Bhatia
99%
Bud Cauley
99%
Kurt Kitayama
99%
Maverick McNealy
99%
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
51%
JT Poston
51%
Pierceson Coody
50%
Nicolas Echavarria
50%
Rickie Fowler
50%
Ryan Fox
50%
Max Homa
50%
Chris Gotterup
50%
Ben Griffin
50%
Brian Harman
50%
Sung-Jae Im
50%
Tom Kim
50%
Jackson Koivun
50%
Min Woo Lee
50%
Shane Lowry
50%
Hideki Matsuyama
50%
Rory McIlroy
50%
Justin Rose
50%
Matthias Schmid
50%
Adam Scott
50%
Jordan L. Smith
50%
J.J. Spaun
50%
Jordan Spieth
50%
Sam Stevens
50%
Sahith Theegala
50%
Gary Woodland
50%
Cameron Young
50%
Ludvig Aberg
50%
Jacob Bridgeman
50%
Sam Burns
50%
Patrick Cantlay
50%
Ricky Castillo
50%
Wyndham Clark
50%
Eric Cole
50%
Corey Conners
50%
Harris English
50%
Alex Fitzpatrick
50%
Tommy Fleetwood
50%
Ryan Gerard
50%
Ryo Hisatsune
50%
Nicolai Hojgaard
50%
Robert MacIntyre
50%
Collin Morikawa
50%
Alexander Noren
50%
Aaron Rai
50%
Scottie Scheffler
50%
Nick Taylor
50%
Justin Thomas
50%
Michael Thorbjornsen
50%
Jake Knapp
50%
Matt McCarty
50%
Keith Mitchell
50%
Matt Fitzpatrick
50%
Harry Hall
50%
Aldrich Potgieter
50%
Kristoffer Reitan
50%
Patrick Rodgers
50%
Viktor Hovland
50%
Michael Kim
50%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score on the back 9 of the first round. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more eagles thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records more birdies thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records fewer bogeys thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship is cancelled, postponed after August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if an official Round 1 leader has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the event organizer or governing body.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.pgatour.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score on the back 9 of the first round. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more eagles thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records more birdies thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records fewer bogeys thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship is cancelled, postponed after August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if an official Round 1 leader has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the event organizer or governing body.
Resolution Source
https://www.pgatour.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely bunched trader consensus around 50% for numerous contenders in the FedEx St. Jude Championship first-round leader market reflects the high variability inherent in opening-round PGA Tour scoring at TPC Southwind. With the FedExCup Playoffs field set after the Wyndham Championship and top players including Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Åberg, Collin Morikawa, and Xander Schauffele all in the mix, no single golfer holds a decisive edge. Course setup details such as pin placements, rough height, and early-week weather conditions create parity, while recent form from the regular season and playoffs shows comparable ball-striking and putting metrics across the deep roster. This setup produces tight implied probabilities as the wisdom of crowds accounts for the broad range of realistic outcomes on day one.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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