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Economy·Consumer

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - July 2026

icon for University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - July 2026
Economy·Consumer

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - July 2026

Jul 31

Jul 31

52.0–54.9 76%

49.0–51.9 8.0%

≥55.0 7.2%

40.0–42.9 1.5%

Polymarket

$19,525 Vol.

52.0–54.9 76%

49.0–51.9 8.0%

≥55.0 7.2%

40.0–42.9 1.5%

Polymarket

$19,525 Vol.

<40.0

$625 Vol.

1%

40.0–42.9

$872 Vol.

2%

43.0–45.9

$7,955 Vol.

7%

46.0–48.9

$1,949 Vol.

1%

49.0–51.9

$3,462 Vol.

8%

52.0–54.9

$2,656 Vol.

76%

≥55.0

$2,005 Vol.

7%

This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for July 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for July 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for July 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent inflation readings, labor market conditions, and Treasury yield movements are the main drivers behind closely matched market-implied odds for the July 2026 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, with readings of 55.0 or higher and the 43.0–45.9 range each at 54.5% probability. Traders are weighing whether cooling price pressures and steady job growth can lift confidence versus ongoing cost-of-living concerns that have kept the index range-bound historically. Key swing factors include upcoming employment data, Federal Reserve communications on the policy rate path, and any shifts in consumer spending or wage trends. Resolution remains highly sensitive to these releases given the narrow probability spread.

This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for July 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for July 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.

The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for July 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.

Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$19,525
End Date
Jul 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 6:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for July 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for July 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for July 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for July 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for July 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for July 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent inflation readings, labor market conditions, and Treasury yield movements are the main drivers behind closely matched market-implied odds for the July 2026 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, with readings of 55.0 or higher and the 43.0–45.9 range each at 54.5% probability. Traders are weighing whether cooling price pressures and steady job growth can lift confidence versus ongoing cost-of-living concerns that have kept the index range-bound historically. Key swing factors include upcoming employment data, Federal Reserve communications on the policy rate path, and any shifts in consumer spending or wage trends. Resolution remains highly sensitive to these releases given the narrow probability spread.

This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for July 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for July 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.

The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for July 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.

Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$19,525
End Date
Jul 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 6:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for July 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for July 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for July 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - July 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "52.0–54.9" at 76%, followed by "49.0–51.9" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 76¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - July 2026" has generated $19.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - July 2026," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - July 2026" is "52.0–54.9" at 76%, meaning the market assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "49.0–51.9" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - July 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.