Kyle Schwarber’s league-leading 30 home runs through roughly 84 games has anchored trader focus, reflecting his sustained barrel rate and pull-side power that historically translate to 40-plus totals in full seasons. Hunter Goodman’s 27 long balls in Coors Field and Yordan Alvarez’s consistent contact quality keep multiple candidates viable, while Byron Buxton’s 25 highlight injury and playing-time risks that can shift implied probabilities. Second-half schedule strength, potential rest days, and park factors remain key variables, as does the ongoing chase amid typical regression patterns for power surges. The wisdom of crowds in current pricing balances these established paces against the inherent variability of late-season outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$18,391 Vol.
Oct 11, 2026
Yordan Alvarez
92%
Kyle Schwarber
87%
Ben Rice
79%
Hunter Goodman
64%
Junior Caminero
68%
James Wood
53%
Munetaka Murakami
50%
Matt Olson
50%
Byron Buxton
34%
Shohei Ohtani
28%
Brandon Lowe
22%
Pete Alonso
16%
Jordan Walker
13%
Christian Walker
12%
Dillon Dingler
12%
Kazuma Okamoto
11%
Nick Kurtz
9%
Bryce Harper
7%
Ketel Marte
7%
Miguel Vargas
6%
6%
Mike Trout
5%
Wilson Contreras
5%
4%
Manny Machado
4%
Aaron Judge
3%
Juan Soto
3%
Shea Langeliers
2%
CJ Abrams
51%
Colson Montgomery
50%
$18,391 Vol.
Yordan Alvarez
$826 Vol.
92%
Kyle Schwarber
$484 Vol.
87%
Ben Rice
$0 Vol.
79%
Hunter Goodman
$1,857 Vol.
64%
Junior Caminero
$70 Vol.
68%
James Wood
$882 Vol.
53%
Munetaka Murakami
$0 Vol.
50%
Matt Olson
$589 Vol.
50%
Byron Buxton
$2,015 Vol.
34%
Shohei Ohtani
$560 Vol.
28%
Brandon Lowe
$1,630 Vol.
22%
Pete Alonso
$47 Vol.
16%
Jordan Walker
$436 Vol.
13%
Christian Walker
$148 Vol.
12%
Dillon Dingler
$3,214 Vol.
12%
Kazuma Okamoto
$0 Vol.
11%
Nick Kurtz
$77 Vol.
9%
Bryce Harper
$378 Vol.
7%
Ketel Marte
$363 Vol.
7%
Miguel Vargas
$120 Vol.
6%
$0 Vol.
6%
Mike Trout
$301 Vol.
5%
Wilson Contreras
$399 Vol.
5%
$0 Vol.
4%
Manny Machado
$222 Vol.
4%
Aaron Judge
$998 Vol.
3%
Juan Soto
$315 Vol.
3%
Shea Langeliers
$1,738 Vol.
2%
CJ Abrams
$521 Vol.
51%
Colson Montgomery
$200 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Schwarber’s league-leading 30 home runs through roughly 84 games has anchored trader focus, reflecting his sustained barrel rate and pull-side power that historically translate to 40-plus totals in full seasons. Hunter Goodman’s 27 long balls in Coors Field and Yordan Alvarez’s consistent contact quality keep multiple candidates viable, while Byron Buxton’s 25 highlight injury and playing-time risks that can shift implied probabilities. Second-half schedule strength, potential rest days, and park factors remain key variables, as does the ongoing chase amid typical regression patterns for power surges. The wisdom of crowds in current pricing balances these established paces against the inherent variability of late-season outcomes.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$18,391End Date
Oct 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.mlb.comResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Schwarber’s league-leading 30 home runs through roughly 84 games has anchored trader focus, reflecting his sustained barrel rate and pull-side power that historically translate to 40-plus totals in full seasons. Hunter Goodman’s 27 long balls in Coors Field and Yordan Alvarez’s consistent contact quality keep multiple candidates viable, while Byron Buxton’s 25 highlight injury and playing-time risks that can shift implied probabilities. Second-half schedule strength, potential rest days, and park factors remain key variables, as does the ongoing chase amid typical regression patterns for power surges. The wisdom of crowds in current pricing balances these established paces against the inherent variability of late-season outcomes.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 40 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,391End Date
Oct 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.mlb.comResolver
0x65070BE91...Kyle Schwarber’s league-leading 30 home runs through roughly 84 games has anchored trader focus, reflecting his sustained barrel rate and pull-side power that historically translate to 40-plus totals in full seasons. Hunter Goodman’s 27 long balls in Coors Field and Yordan Alvarez’s consistent contact quality keep multiple candidates viable, while Byron Buxton’s 25 highlight injury and playing-time risks that can shift implied probabilities. Second-half schedule strength, potential rest days, and park factors remain key variables, as does the ongoing chase amid typical regression patterns for power surges. The wisdom of crowds in current pricing balances these established paces against the inherent variability of late-season outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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