**Recent US-Iran diplomatic friction and Iran's explicit denial of scheduled IAEA access to damaged sites explain the "No" edge at 57.5%.** Following 2025 US and Israeli strikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, Iran has restricted IAEA verification at the affected enrichment and storage facilities, citing sovereignty and ongoing safeguards obligations under its NPT agreement. As of mid-June 2026, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi and US officials (including statements from President Trump and Vice President Vance) indicated potential inspector returns within days or weeks under a 60-day negotiation window, yet Iranian Foreign Ministry spokespersons immediately rejected any new commitments, meetings, or protocols for visits to the struck sites. This contradiction, combined with the short July 31 deadline and historical patterns of delayed or conditional access after military incidents, underpins trader consensus that a verified IAEA visit to any of the three locations remains unlikely before the cutoff. Upcoming talks could still alter timelines, but current primary-source reporting shows no confirmed itinerary or Iranian facilitation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
$226,725 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
July 31
<1%
August 31
3%
October 31
14%
December 31
29%
$226,725 Vol.
July 31
$190,491 Vol.
<1%
August 31
$18,335 Vol.
3%
October 31
$8,722 Vol.
14%
December 31
$9,177 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.**Recent US-Iran diplomatic friction and Iran's explicit denial of scheduled IAEA access to damaged sites explain the "No" edge at 57.5%.**
Following 2025 US and Israeli strikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, Iran has restricted IAEA verification at the affected enrichment and storage facilities, citing sovereignty and ongoing safeguards obligations under its NPT agreement. As of mid-June 2026, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi and US officials (including statements from President Trump and Vice President Vance) indicated potential inspector returns within days or weeks under a 60-day negotiation window, yet Iranian Foreign Ministry spokespersons immediately rejected any new commitments, meetings, or protocols for visits to the struck sites. This contradiction, combined with the short July 31 deadline and historical patterns of delayed or conditional access after military incidents, underpins trader consensus that a verified IAEA visit to any of the three locations remains unlikely before the cutoff. Upcoming talks could still alter timelines, but current primary-source reporting shows no confirmed itinerary or Iranian facilitation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$226,725End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.**Recent US-Iran diplomatic friction and Iran's explicit denial of scheduled IAEA access to damaged sites explain the "No" edge at 57.5%.**
Following 2025 US and Israeli strikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, Iran has restricted IAEA verification at the affected enrichment and storage facilities, citing sovereignty and ongoing safeguards obligations under its NPT agreement. As of mid-June 2026, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi and US officials (including statements from President Trump and Vice President Vance) indicated potential inspector returns within days or weeks under a 60-day negotiation window, yet Iranian Foreign Ministry spokespersons immediately rejected any new commitments, meetings, or protocols for visits to the struck sites. This contradiction, combined with the short July 31 deadline and historical patterns of delayed or conditional access after military incidents, underpins trader consensus that a verified IAEA visit to any of the three locations remains unlikely before the cutoff. Upcoming talks could still alter timelines, but current primary-source reporting shows no confirmed itinerary or Iranian facilitation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$226,725End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent US-Iran diplomatic friction and Iran's explicit denial of scheduled IAEA access to damaged sites explain the "No" edge at 57.5%.** Following 2025 US and Israeli strikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, Iran has restricted IAEA verification at the affected enrichment and storage facilities, citing sovereignty and ongoing safeguards obligations under its NPT agreement. As of mid-June 2026, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi and US officials (including statements from President Trump and Vice President Vance) indicated potential inspector returns within days or weeks under a 60-day negotiation window, yet Iranian Foreign Ministry spokespersons immediately rejected any new commitments, meetings, or protocols for visits to the struck sites. This contradiction, combined with the short July 31 deadline and historical patterns of delayed or conditional access after military incidents, underpins trader consensus that a verified IAEA visit to any of the three locations remains unlikely before the cutoff. Upcoming talks could still alter timelines, but current primary-source reporting shows no confirmed itinerary or Iranian facilitation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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