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icon for How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

icon for How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

1-3 50%

4-6 43%

7+ 39%

0 10%

Polymarket
NEW

1-3 50%

4-6 43%

7+ 39%

0 10%

Polymarket
NEW

0

$58 Vol.

10%

1-3

$0 Vol.

50%

4-6

$0 Vol.

43%

7+

$0 Vol.

39%

This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Recent forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University highlight a strengthening El Niño as the main factor keeping trader odds tightly clustered across ranges for 2026 Atlantic hurricanes, with only two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) formed so far and zero hurricanes through late July. El Niño typically boosts upper-level wind shear and stabilizes the atmosphere over the Atlantic main development region, reducing intensification potential despite warmer sea surface temperatures. Updated July outlooks now project 3–6 or around 4 hurricanes—well below the 1991–2020 average of seven—while historical analogs from prior moderate El Niño years show wide variability. Peak-season conditions in August–September and any shifts in Pacific sea surface temperatures will determine whether activity stays suppressed or rebounds.

This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.

If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Volume
$58
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Recent forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University highlight a strengthening El Niño as the main factor keeping trader odds tightly clustered across ranges for 2026 Atlantic hurricanes, with only two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) formed so far and zero hurricanes through late July. El Niño typically boosts upper-level wind shear and stabilizes the atmosphere over the Atlantic main development region, reducing intensification potential despite warmer sea surface temperatures. Updated July outlooks now project 3–6 or around 4 hurricanes—well below the 1991–2020 average of seven—while historical analogs from prior moderate El Niño years show wide variability. Peak-season conditions in August–September and any shifts in Pacific sea surface temperatures will determine whether activity stays suppressed or rebounds.

This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.

If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Volume
$58
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1-3" at 50%, followed by "4-6" at 44%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?" is "1-3" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4-6" at 44%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.