Ongoing extreme heat across much of the U.S., driven by persistent heat domes and above-normal temperature forecasts from NOAA through mid-August, has kept traders evenly split between the 101-150 and 151+ bins at 46.5% each. July already produced over 130 all-time station records, with early August seeing additional ties or breaks in places like Phoenix amid 110-120°F readings in the Southwest. With roughly three weeks remaining, the tight spread reflects uncertainty over how many additional stations will surpass long-standing historical highs versus daily or monthly marks, especially as any cooling trend or regional variability could cap totals in the lower triple digits. Traders are weighing continued heat-wave expansion against typical late-summer moderation patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
How many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
61-100 48%
101-150 48%
21-60 47%
151+ 47%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
0-20
36%
21-60
47%
61-100
48%
101-150
48%
151+
47%
61-100 48%
101-150 48%
21-60 47%
151+ 47%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
0-20
$54 Vol.
36%
21-60
$0 Vol.
47%
61-100
$0 Vol.
48%
101-150
$0 Vol.
48%
151+
$0 Vol.
47%
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.Ongoing extreme heat across much of the U.S., driven by persistent heat domes and above-normal temperature forecasts from NOAA through mid-August, has kept traders evenly split between the 101-150 and 151+ bins at 46.5% each. July already produced over 130 all-time station records, with early August seeing additional ties or breaks in places like Phoenix amid 110-120°F readings in the Southwest. With roughly three weeks remaining, the tight spread reflects uncertainty over how many additional stations will surpass long-standing historical highs versus daily or monthly marks, especially as any cooling trend or regional variability could cap totals in the lower triple digits. Traders are weighing continued heat-wave expansion against typical late-summer moderation patterns.
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$54End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.Ongoing extreme heat across much of the U.S., driven by persistent heat domes and above-normal temperature forecasts from NOAA through mid-August, has kept traders evenly split between the 101-150 and 151+ bins at 46.5% each. July already produced over 130 all-time station records, with early August seeing additional ties or breaks in places like Phoenix amid 110-120°F readings in the Southwest. With roughly three weeks remaining, the tight spread reflects uncertainty over how many additional stations will surpass long-standing historical highs versus daily or monthly marks, especially as any cooling trend or regional variability could cap totals in the lower triple digits. Traders are weighing continued heat-wave expansion against typical late-summer moderation patterns.
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
Volume
$54End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing extreme heat across much of the U.S., driven by persistent heat domes and above-normal temperature forecasts from NOAA through mid-August, has kept traders evenly split between the 101-150 and 151+ bins at 46.5% each. July already produced over 130 all-time station records, with early August seeing additional ties or breaks in places like Phoenix amid 110-120°F readings in the Southwest. With roughly three weeks remaining, the tight spread reflects uncertainty over how many additional stations will surpass long-standing historical highs versus daily or monthly marks, especially as any cooling trend or regional variability could cap totals in the lower triple digits. Traders are weighing continued heat-wave expansion against typical late-summer moderation patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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