**Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced no enacted reduction in federal capital gains tax rates or indexing of basis for inflation as of mid-August 2026.** The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions were extended and made permanent earlier via the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” but that measure left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at 0/15/20 percent. Proposals to index gains for inflation, raise home-sale exclusions, or enact targeted cuts remain in committee or under discussion, with analysts citing low odds of passage before the November midterms. President Trump and advisers have floated capital gains relief as a potential midterm message, including via reconciliation or executive indexing, yet competing priorities such as voter-ID legislation and defense funding dominate the reconciliation agenda. Multiple bills (e.g., More Homes on the Market Act, No Tax on Homes Sales Act, Nest Egg Protection Act) have been introduced without advancing to floor votes. With only four months remaining in the calendar year and narrow procedural windows, traders assign an 83.5 percent probability to “No,” reflecting the tight timeline, legislative gridlock risks, and absence of confirmed action on rate reductions or structural changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated17% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
17% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced no enacted reduction in federal capital gains tax rates or indexing of basis for inflation as of mid-August 2026.** The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions were extended and made permanent earlier via the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” but that measure left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at 0/15/20 percent. Proposals to index gains for inflation, raise home-sale exclusions, or enact targeted cuts remain in committee or under discussion, with analysts citing low odds of passage before the November midterms.
President Trump and advisers have floated capital gains relief as a potential midterm message, including via reconciliation or executive indexing, yet competing priorities such as voter-ID legislation and defense funding dominate the reconciliation agenda. Multiple bills (e.g., More Homes on the Market Act, No Tax on Homes Sales Act, Nest Egg Protection Act) have been introduced without advancing to floor votes. With only four months remaining in the calendar year and narrow procedural windows, traders assign an 83.5 percent probability to “No,” reflecting the tight timeline, legislative gridlock risks, and absence of confirmed action on rate reductions or structural changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$62End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced no enacted reduction in federal capital gains tax rates or indexing of basis for inflation as of mid-August 2026.** The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions were extended and made permanent earlier via the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” but that measure left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at 0/15/20 percent. Proposals to index gains for inflation, raise home-sale exclusions, or enact targeted cuts remain in committee or under discussion, with analysts citing low odds of passage before the November midterms.
President Trump and advisers have floated capital gains relief as a potential midterm message, including via reconciliation or executive indexing, yet competing priorities such as voter-ID legislation and defense funding dominate the reconciliation agenda. Multiple bills (e.g., More Homes on the Market Act, No Tax on Homes Sales Act, Nest Egg Protection Act) have been introduced without advancing to floor votes. With only four months remaining in the calendar year and narrow procedural windows, traders assign an 83.5 percent probability to “No,” reflecting the tight timeline, legislative gridlock risks, and absence of confirmed action on rate reductions or structural changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$62End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced no enacted reduction in federal capital gains tax rates or indexing of basis for inflation as of mid-August 2026.** The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions were extended and made permanent earlier via the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” but that measure left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at 0/15/20 percent. Proposals to index gains for inflation, raise home-sale exclusions, or enact targeted cuts remain in committee or under discussion, with analysts citing low odds of passage before the November midterms. President Trump and advisers have floated capital gains relief as a potential midterm message, including via reconciliation or executive indexing, yet competing priorities such as voter-ID legislation and defense funding dominate the reconciliation agenda. Multiple bills (e.g., More Homes on the Market Act, No Tax on Homes Sales Act, Nest Egg Protection Act) have been introduced without advancing to floor votes. With only four months remaining in the calendar year and narrow procedural windows, traders assign an 83.5 percent probability to “No,” reflecting the tight timeline, legislative gridlock risks, and absence of confirmed action on rate reductions or structural changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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