**Trader sentiment on the Bank of Mexico’s September 2026 policy decision reflects closely balanced risks around the current 6.50% target rate, with market-implied odds clustered near 45–50% across no change, ±25 bps moves, and larger shifts.** Banxico cut 25 bps in May—the final step in its easing cycle that began in 2024—citing Q1 economic contraction, wider slack, and inflation easing to 4.45% headline and 4.26% core. The board’s forward guidance explicitly signaled that holding steady would likely be appropriate amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties, with convergence to the 3% target still projected for Q2 2027. Headline inflation has since declined further to 3.94% in May 2026 (within the 2–4% tolerance band), supported by energy subsidies, though core measures remain elevated and services inflation sticky. Key differentiating factors include the pace of core disinflation versus growth outcomes: weaker activity could reopen scope for additional easing, while any reacceleration in prices or MXN pressure tied to the U.S. policy path could favor a hike or prolonged hold. Upcoming June and July inflation prints, Q2 GDP, and the June 25 and August 6 meetings will shape the data-dependent path. The split board votes in recent decisions underscore internal caution, leaving September pricing sensitive to whether incoming releases confirm sustained moderation or renewed pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 90%
25 bps decrease 7.1%
25 bps increase 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$12,615 Vol.
$12,615 Vol.
Sep 24, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
90%
25 bps increase
1%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 90%
25 bps decrease 7.1%
25 bps increase 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$12,615 Vol.
$12,615 Vol.
Sep 24, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$744 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$1,915 Vol.
7%
No change
$7,283 Vol.
90%
25 bps increase
$1,974 Vol.
1%
50+ bps increase
$699 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Trader sentiment on the Bank of Mexico’s September 2026 policy decision reflects closely balanced risks around the current 6.50% target rate, with market-implied odds clustered near 45–50% across no change, ±25 bps moves, and larger shifts.**
Banxico cut 25 bps in May—the final step in its easing cycle that began in 2024—citing Q1 economic contraction, wider slack, and inflation easing to 4.45% headline and 4.26% core. The board’s forward guidance explicitly signaled that holding steady would likely be appropriate amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties, with convergence to the 3% target still projected for Q2 2027. Headline inflation has since declined further to 3.94% in May 2026 (within the 2–4% tolerance band), supported by energy subsidies, though core measures remain elevated and services inflation sticky.
Key differentiating factors include the pace of core disinflation versus growth outcomes: weaker activity could reopen scope for additional easing, while any reacceleration in prices or MXN pressure tied to the U.S. policy path could favor a hike or prolonged hold. Upcoming June and July inflation prints, Q2 GDP, and the June 25 and August 6 meetings will shape the data-dependent path. The split board votes in recent decisions underscore internal caution, leaving September pricing sensitive to whether incoming releases confirm sustained moderation or renewed pressures.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Volume
$12,615End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Trader sentiment on the Bank of Mexico’s September 2026 policy decision reflects closely balanced risks around the current 6.50% target rate, with market-implied odds clustered near 45–50% across no change, ±25 bps moves, and larger shifts.**
Banxico cut 25 bps in May—the final step in its easing cycle that began in 2024—citing Q1 economic contraction, wider slack, and inflation easing to 4.45% headline and 4.26% core. The board’s forward guidance explicitly signaled that holding steady would likely be appropriate amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties, with convergence to the 3% target still projected for Q2 2027. Headline inflation has since declined further to 3.94% in May 2026 (within the 2–4% tolerance band), supported by energy subsidies, though core measures remain elevated and services inflation sticky.
Key differentiating factors include the pace of core disinflation versus growth outcomes: weaker activity could reopen scope for additional easing, while any reacceleration in prices or MXN pressure tied to the U.S. policy path could favor a hike or prolonged hold. Upcoming June and July inflation prints, Q2 GDP, and the June 25 and August 6 meetings will shape the data-dependent path. The split board votes in recent decisions underscore internal caution, leaving September pricing sensitive to whether incoming releases confirm sustained moderation or renewed pressures.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$12,615End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment on the Bank of Mexico’s September 2026 policy decision reflects closely balanced risks around the current 6.50% target rate, with market-implied odds clustered near 45–50% across no change, ±25 bps moves, and larger shifts.** Banxico cut 25 bps in May—the final step in its easing cycle that began in 2024—citing Q1 economic contraction, wider slack, and inflation easing to 4.45% headline and 4.26% core. The board’s forward guidance explicitly signaled that holding steady would likely be appropriate amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties, with convergence to the 3% target still projected for Q2 2027. Headline inflation has since declined further to 3.94% in May 2026 (within the 2–4% tolerance band), supported by energy subsidies, though core measures remain elevated and services inflation sticky. Key differentiating factors include the pace of core disinflation versus growth outcomes: weaker activity could reopen scope for additional easing, while any reacceleration in prices or MXN pressure tied to the U.S. policy path could favor a hike or prolonged hold. Upcoming June and July inflation prints, Q2 GDP, and the June 25 and August 6 meetings will shape the data-dependent path. The split board votes in recent decisions underscore internal caution, leaving September pricing sensitive to whether incoming releases confirm sustained moderation or renewed pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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