Feely holds a commanding lead in the AZ-01 Republican primary, with traders assigning a 98.6% probability to a 10–15% margin of victory. This consensus stems from Feely’s stronger name recognition, fundraising edge, and organizational support within the district’s Republican electorate, alongside limited polling that has consistently shown a comfortable advantage over Chaplik. Primary turnout dynamics, including early and absentee voting patterns among conservative voters, have reinforced expectations of a decisive but not overwhelming result. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include a late surge in Chaplik’s campaign through targeted endorsements or voter mobilization in key precincts, unexpected shifts in turnout favoring the challenger, or external events such as candidate controversies emerging before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory
AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory
Feely 10–15% 98.6%
Feely 15–20% <1%
Chaplik 10%+ <1%
Feely 25%+ <1%
$24,301 Vol.
$24,301 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
Feely 25%+
<1%
Feely 20–25%
<1%
Feely 15–20%
<1%
Feely 10–15%
99%
Feely 5–10%
<1%
Feely <5%
<1%
Chaplik <5%
<1%
Chaplik 5–10%
<1%
Chaplik 10%+
<1%
Feely 10–15% 98.6%
Feely 15–20% <1%
Chaplik 10%+ <1%
Feely 25%+ <1%
$24,301 Vol.
$24,301 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
Feely 25%+
$1,838 Vol.
<1%
Feely 20–25%
$4,113 Vol.
<1%
Feely 15–20%
$7,881 Vol.
<1%
Feely 10–15%
$4,527 Vol.
99%
Feely 5–10%
$2,095 Vol.
<1%
Feely <5%
$1,030 Vol.
<1%
Chaplik <5%
$999 Vol.
<1%
Chaplik 5–10%
$898 Vol.
<1%
Chaplik 10%+
$920 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Feely holds a commanding lead in the AZ-01 Republican primary, with traders assigning a 98.6% probability to a 10–15% margin of victory. This consensus stems from Feely’s stronger name recognition, fundraising edge, and organizational support within the district’s Republican electorate, alongside limited polling that has consistently shown a comfortable advantage over Chaplik. Primary turnout dynamics, including early and absentee voting patterns among conservative voters, have reinforced expectations of a decisive but not overwhelming result. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include a late surge in Chaplik’s campaign through targeted endorsements or voter mobilization in key precincts, unexpected shifts in turnout favoring the challenger, or external events such as candidate controversies emerging before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jul 8, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$24,301End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Feely holds a commanding lead in the AZ-01 Republican primary, with traders assigning a 98.6% probability to a 10–15% margin of victory. This consensus stems from Feely’s stronger name recognition, fundraising edge, and organizational support within the district’s Republican electorate, alongside limited polling that has consistently shown a comfortable advantage over Chaplik. Primary turnout dynamics, including early and absentee voting patterns among conservative voters, have reinforced expectations of a decisive but not overwhelming result. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include a late surge in Chaplik’s campaign through targeted endorsements or voter mobilization in key precincts, unexpected shifts in turnout favoring the challenger, or external events such as candidate controversies emerging before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$24,301End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Feely holds a commanding lead in the AZ-01 Republican primary, with traders assigning a 98.6% probability to a 10–15% margin of victory. This consensus stems from Feely’s stronger name recognition, fundraising edge, and organizational support within the district’s Republican electorate, alongside limited polling that has consistently shown a comfortable advantage over Chaplik. Primary turnout dynamics, including early and absentee voting patterns among conservative voters, have reinforced expectations of a decisive but not overwhelming result. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include a late surge in Chaplik’s campaign through targeted endorsements or voter mobilization in key precincts, unexpected shifts in turnout favoring the challenger, or external events such as candidate controversies emerging before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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