Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies recently reaching +2.1 °C and forecasts pointing to a very strong event peaking later in 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating August global temperature probabilities. Combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, this boosts the likelihood of August 2026 ranking among the top few warmest on record, though exact placement versus prior years like 2023–2025 depends on precise monthly anomaly magnitudes and model spread in seasonal forecasts. High uncertainty around the 50% market-implied odds for each outcome stems from variable El Niño timing, potential short-term cooling influences, and the narrow margins separating record rankings amid ongoing climate variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
3rd hottest 48%
1st hottest 47%
2nd hottest 47%
4th or lower 45%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
1st hottest
47%
2nd hottest
47%
3rd hottest
48%
4th or lower
45%
3rd hottest 48%
1st hottest 47%
2nd hottest 47%
4th or lower 45%
NEW
NEW
Jul 31, 2026
1st hottest
$0 Vol.
47%
2nd hottest
$0 Vol.
47%
3rd hottest
$0 Vol.
48%
4th or lower
$0 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies recently reaching +2.1 °C and forecasts pointing to a very strong event peaking later in 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating August global temperature probabilities. Combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, this boosts the likelihood of August 2026 ranking among the top few warmest on record, though exact placement versus prior years like 2023–2025 depends on precise monthly anomaly magnitudes and model spread in seasonal forecasts. High uncertainty around the 50% market-implied odds for each outcome stems from variable El Niño timing, potential short-term cooling influences, and the narrow margins separating record rankings amid ongoing climate variability.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies recently reaching +2.1 °C and forecasts pointing to a very strong event peaking later in 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating August global temperature probabilities. Combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, this boosts the likelihood of August 2026 ranking among the top few warmest on record, though exact placement versus prior years like 2023–2025 depends on precise monthly anomaly magnitudes and model spread in seasonal forecasts. High uncertainty around the 50% market-implied odds for each outcome stems from variable El Niño timing, potential short-term cooling influences, and the narrow margins separating record rankings amid ongoing climate variability.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies recently reaching +2.1 °C and forecasts pointing to a very strong event peaking later in 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating August global temperature probabilities. Combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, this boosts the likelihood of August 2026 ranking among the top few warmest on record, though exact placement versus prior years like 2023–2025 depends on precise monthly anomaly magnitudes and model spread in seasonal forecasts. High uncertainty around the 50% market-implied odds for each outcome stems from variable El Niño timing, potential short-term cooling influences, and the narrow margins separating record rankings amid ongoing climate variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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